Thursday, March 13, 2008

Florida & Michigan: Addition By Subtraction

Wassup, Y'all!

I caught an interesting blog post the other day that becomes more relevant by the day as Florida seems to be heading for a mail-in revote and Michigan is still trying to figure out what the heck they want to do. Despite both states being warned that they would be stripped of their delegates if they moved their primaries up, despite both states willingly doing just that, despite all democratic candidates agreeing not to campaign in either state, despite Smooth Barack going the extra step of removing his name from the Michigan ballot, these two states are *STILL* in play.

Sister Hillary has shown a shameful eagerness to flaunt the rules that she originally agreed to and her 'Win At Any Cost' wardrobe fits better by the day. She kept her name on both state ballots, did undercover campaigning in Florida under the guise of 'fund raising' and held a victory rally to celebrate the meaningless Florida election results. Since then she has included Florida in her list of 'won' states and now is demanding that either the original vote stand or that there should be a re-do primary vote. Clearly while Bill couldn't inhale, Sister Hillary has smoked her joint into a roach.

So what's Smooth to do in the face of this madness? Well Joseph Lane, an Obama supporter over on the Brittanica Blog, thinks he should concede both Florida and Michigan to Hillary now - a concept that initially seems to also smack of madness until you think through the details...

Joe's logic (which preceded the Mississippi primary) went like this:

'Today, after winning in Wyoming, we lead by somewhere between 141 (CNN) and 155 ( pledged delegates. We might reasonably expect to expand that lead to 160 or more by the end of the week with the completion of the Texas caucus results and another victory in Mississippi. If we concede Senator Clinton 60% of the 313 delegates from F&M on Friday, she would gain about 64 delegates. Therefore, on that day, we would still lead her by nearly 100 pledged delegates (maybe more), even with F&M in her column. The chances that she can make up 100 delegates in the remaining states, even with a 10-12 point victory in Pennsylvania, are virtually nil.'

I've checked the math (and this assumes that Smooth gets Michigan's 'Uncommitted' vote count) and tho the delegate lead is smaller than mentioned here, the principles look pretty sound - take the high road, get Florida and Michigan out of the way and essentially split the remaining delegates all the way to the convention arriving with a delegate intact. No last minute surprises, no need for back room wranglin' or a brokered convention. Man, that sounds like win-win to me.

I've sent a copy of this post over to my boy Rollo at Ray-Ray's Ribs and Cheese Steaks down on Broadway in Philly. I expect Smooth to be fallin' through there soon on a campaign swing. I've asked Rollo to slip this post in his bag between the complimentary cheese steak hoagie and Tastykake Butterscotch Krimpets. No way he can't miss it. Check your local news cycles to see if Smooth takes the bait...



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