Monday, September 08, 2008

Despite Ty, McCain gets more bounce to the ounce

Wassup, Y'all!

To quote The Diva from who hit me up over the weekend, 'Yeah, I'm annoyed'.

That sentiment summed up ol girl's (and most southsiders) thoughts on the inexplicable national reaction to Sarah Palin (Say-Pay), which is no small component of the huge convention 'bounce' that Citizen McCain got comin' out of the Republican National Convention. Shortly after the Democratic National Convention Smooth Barack enjoyed an eight point lead in the polls. Today, USA Today is reporting that McCain leads Smooth 50%-46% - translating into a net bounce of 12 points. In fact, is reporting a larger gap in their 09/05 - 09/07 polling - 54% - 44% McCain. Thankfully, other polls show that the race is either tied or Smooth leads by a range of 1% - 6%. The end result of this? The race is crazy tight, Citizen's insane bet on Say-Pay is paying big dividends (at least in the short term), The Diva is annoyed and ol Ty is wondering just what the hell people are thinking...

First, let me drop an excerpt of The Diva's thoughts on just what's so annoying about Family Say-Pay:

"I had originally called them The Beverly Hillbillies, but that was a disservice to the Clampetts. DUI, teenage pregnancy, domestic violence, self-proclaimed red-neck… As the litany of their pedigree unfurled before me I just shook my head. The Obamas did everything right. Working class parents/grandparents instilled the belief and need for higher education. They struggled and worked their fingers to the bone to make sure Barack and Michelle got an excellent education. B and M graduated and then began their careers – like you are supposed to do. They performed community service and went to church. They got married, had children (notice the order of events) and yet they aren’t good enough. They are ”uppity”, “elite” “not black enough” and yet – yet These gun toting, moose hunting yahoos are some how better? Can you imagine the outcry if the skin colors were reversed?"

Then she dropped the quote that's on every southsider's mind in the wake of these poll numbers - 'Once again it is proven that black people have to be three times better to be considered half as good'. Ol Ty couldn't have summed it up better.

I've read at least one pundit (sorry, y'all - misplaced that link!) who wasn't afraid to point to the elephant in the room - that this entire election will turn on race and how we can either finally overlook it or can't get past it. I'd bet the house on the proposition that if Smooth Barack were a northsider that Citizen McCain would be so far behind in the polls that he'd be calling to concede today. I have no other explanation, especially given the outpouring of support for a candidate of Say-Pay's caliber. The Republican base doesn't even *like* Citizen McCain, yet here we are 57 days away from the election with him opening a significant lead in some polls. That's how good the Republican spin machine is.

But before y'all go jumping off a bridge too soon, there is still much to consider. First, the race is far from over. This is a convention bounce and they are normally not predictors of election victory. Second, we have three presidential and one vice-presidential debates coming up and the stark differences between the candidates will be revealed for the world to see. You think the conventions got huge ratings? Wait until the debates hit. Third, Smooth is tied or leads Citizen in the swing states Citizen needs to win the election, and fourth, the ace up the democrats sleeve - they continue to register far more voters than the republicans. The trick will be to get them all to the polls on election day but that's a good problem to have.

No one said it would be easy, y'all. Just like in the Democratic primaries - you got to keep the faith. It's gonna be a white knuckle ride from here on in - buckle up.



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