Monday, September 22, 2008

Elephant Outed: Why The Election is Really So Close

Wassup, Y'all!

Since Smooth Barack's journey began in Springfield like a million years ago (actually February '07) the quiet buzz within the southside nation was this: 'Northsiders will never let a southsider get elected President of the United States'. That became the elephant in the room that got alluded to when the specter of Rev. J-Wright appeared - a series of events which culminated in Smooth giving his well received speech on race in Philly in heat of that storm. Then things died down for a few until the Democratic nomination race reached hysterical levels and disturbin' details emerged about the racial proclivities of a large component of Sister Hillary's support - less educated, northside democrats.

Cynical southsiders quickly jumped up and said, 'See? Didn't we tell, y'all?' But that argument held little water as Smooth went on to actually win the Democratic nomination. Optimistic southsiders began to think that we had turned the corner and that in an election where past and current events screamed that a change in direction (and political party) was in order, it seemed that *any* Democratic nominee would win the election in a walk. Now with data in hand from an extensive AP-Yahoo poll that sought to measure actual northside feelings toward southsiders, the results provide sobering evidence that though Smooth Barack won the battle for the Democratic Presidental nomination, he may well lose the war for the White House on some triflin' a$ bull$hit...

Now before I get to the actual factuals on this, please excuse my colorful language, but in ol Ty's view, the findings in the poll are more than enough to either 1) work a brother's *last* nerve or 2) make a brother catch a case - either way, ol Ty needs to take a chill pill before he falls out. Okay, on with the sad a$$ show. The poll revealed the following:
  • 1/3 of northside democrats harbor negative views toward southsiders
  • 40% of all northside Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents
  • More than a third of all northside Democrats and independents agreed with at least one negative adjective about southsiders and they are significantly less likely to vote for Smooth Barack than those who don't have such views
  • Just seven in 10 people who call themselves Democrats (particularly non-Hispanic northside voters) support Smooth Barack, compared to the 85% of self-identified Republicans who back McCain
  • Given a choice of several positive and negative adjectives that might describe southsiders, 20% of all northsiders said the word "violent" strongly applied. Among other words, 22% agreed with "boastful," 29% "complaining," 13% "lazy" and 11% "irresponsible" When asked about positive adjectives, northsiders were more likely to stay on the fence than give a strongly positive assessment [Ty: although they did say we could dance 'real good']
  • More than a quarter of northside Democrats agree that "if [southsiders] would only try harder, they could be just as well off as [northsiders]"
  • Among northside independents, racial stereotyping is not uncommon. For example, while about 20% of independent voters called southsiders "intelligent" or "smart," more than one third latched on the adjective "complaining" and 24% said southsiders were "violent"
  • Just 59% of [Sister Hillary's] northside Democratic supporters said they wanted [Smooth Barack] to be president. Nearly 17% of Sister Hillary's northside backers plan to vote for Citizen McCain
  • Among northside Democrats, Sister Hillary supporters were nearly twice as likely as Smooth Barack backers to say at least one negative adjective described southsiders well, a finding that suggests many of her supporters in the primaries — particularly northsiders with high school education or less — were motivated in part by racial attitudes
One talkative member of that last crew was quoted as saying, 'We still don't like black people". This heartfelt comment was from John Clouse, 57 who was reflecting the sentiments of his pals gathered at a coffee shop in Somerset, Ohio. you can't find a single white sheet when you go to the Wal-Mart Bath and Bedroom department in Somerset.

What makes this poll more far reaching (and in ol Ty's view much more accurate) it that it gathered input from folks who were first screen via phone but who were then allowed to answer these touchy questions online. My boyz and I long speculated that other polls, where you would have to verbally acknowledge your racism to a real person, would not be accurate and skew the real results in a more positive direction. You always get better results when you let someone do their dirty in the dark.

The poll also, 'broke ground by incorporating images of black and white faces to measure implicit racial attitudes, or prejudices that are so deeply rooted that people may not realize they have them. That test suggested the incidence of racial prejudice is even higher, with more than half of [northsiders] revealing more negative feelings toward [southsiders] than [northsiders]'.

Lastly, the survey also highlighted something that caught ol Ty completely off guard. It was the fact that, 'Race is not the biggest factor driving Democrats and independents away from [Smooth Barack]. Doubts about his competency loom even larger, the poll indicates. More than a quarter of all Democrats expressed doubt that [Smooth Barack] can bring about the change they want, and they are likely to vote against him because of that'

Wow - a Harvard grad and Constitutional Law professor not competent enough to run the country? That background seems to more than match up with Sister Hillary or Citizen McCain who graduated near the bottom of his Naval Academy class or Say-Pay who went to five colleges in six years. I wonder what's driving that notion?

Though these results are in no way surprising to southsiders, let ol Ty give credit where credit is really due. We know, given where Smooth is today, that not all northsiders are prejudiced. In fact, the survey also indicated that, 'more [northsiders] say good things about [southsiders] than say bad things...And many [northsiders] who see [southsiders] in a negative light are still willing or even eager to vote for [Smooth]'. I even have good northside friends who like southsiders, y'all so I can vouch for that one :-)

I think Donna Brazile said it best yesterday when asked to reflect on these poll results (which indicate that these views could be effecting Smooth's poll numbers by as much as 6%). Ol girl said, forget about the 1/3 that has these views and is a lost cause and focus on the 2/3 that have been active and avid supporters. I'd have to agree. It's gonna take more that 50 some odd days to sway those other minds (if they can ever be swayed) so let the elephant out of the closet, acknowledge its effect and move on. Time is short.

Sorry to run so long, y'all but mama said ol Ty needed to vent on this one so that he'd be able to live to type another day.



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